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Tuesday, July 1, 2025

"Risk" and "Cause" Are Not the Same


Stephen Camarata at Psychology Today:
The truth is that finding a cause for autism is not that simple and will undoubtedly require more than a few months. The current state of the art in autism research indicates that there are a plethora of factors plausibly posited as “causes.”

For example, an extensive research literature highlights potential genetic contributions: A recent review concluded “The cause of autism seems to be multifactorial. Genetic mechanisms play a particularly large role as a cause of autism, and a substantial number of DNA studies have discovered a polygenic risk factor in autism[2].”

But a “risk” does not necessarily mean “cause.” A well-known example of this can be seen in cancer research. Evidently, herpes virus (HSV) is a highly significant risk factor for developing cervical cancer, and was once widely believed to be a “cause” of this form of cancer. But another virus, Human Papilloma Virus (HPV), is more directly implicated in cervical cancer to the extent that the US Centers for Disease Control now reports, “More than 9 of every 10 cases of cervical cancer are caused by HPV. Almost all cervical cancer can be prevented by HPV vaccination.”[4]

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It may be instructive to bear in mind that families have been victimized by a whole series of proclamations on the "cause" of autism[9], ranging from "refrigerator moms" who withheld attention and attachment to their child to the Wakefield debacle wherein the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine was touted as the cause. [10] Ultimately, the article promoting this cause was withdrawn from publication in disgrace.