Trump v. Autistic People

Many posts have discussed Trump's bad record on disability issues. As his words and actions have shown, he despises Americans with disabilities. He told his nephew Fred that severely disabled people -- such as Fred's son -- should "just die."

Project 2025 proposed to turn IDEA into a "no strings" block grant, effectively gutting the law and destroying protections that disability families have long relied upon. During the 2024 race, Trump denied any connection to the project, but now he proclaims it, praising OMB director Russ Vought "of Project 2025 fame."

Trump and Vought are now accomplishing their goal of ravaging the law. Instead of shifting it to a block grant, they are firing most of the staff who enforce it.  A judge has temporarily paused the attack, but the administration will likely find ways to ignore or circumvent the order.

At CBS and KFF,  Claire Sibonney reports that the Trump administration has effectively gutted the Office for Civil Rights at the Department of Education.

For families who believe their child's rights were violated based on race, disability, or gender in school, the federal agency often has been one of the main places to turn. But the White House cut its offices and weakened its ability to follow up with cases, as well as slashed funding to research on disparities that people of color face in getting diagnosed and attaining resources for disabilities.

About 1 in 31 U.S. kids by age 8 had been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder as of 2022. Although previous research on disparities in childhood autism diagnoses has had mixed results, a recent study from the State University of New York at Albany's Institute for Social and Health Equity found that race, gender, and socioeconomic gaps persist. Among fourth graders from 2003 to 2022, students of color, girls, low-income students, and multilingual learners were less likely than peers to be identified with autism in school, even as diagnoses rose among children from historically marginalized groups, the study found. A large forthcoming study by the same researchers found the biggest gaps among overlapping identities. Black and Hispanic girls were especially unlikely to be identified.

All this has happened as President Donald Trump's second administration has put autism in the spotlight. In early August, Trump signed an executive order to whittle down routine immunizations for kids while falsely tying vaccines to autism. He has presented it as a personal priority and one of "the most alarming public health developments in history." Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in April 2025 called autism a "tragedy" that "destroys families," and he's lent credence to ungrounded claims of autism's causes, including unfounded links to childhood vaccines and Tylenol during pregnancy

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RFK Jr. and Wandering

The Politics of Autism discusses the dangers facing autistic people, including wandering and drowning.

Molly Castle Work at Minnesota Public Radio:

 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who has a track record of spreading disinformation around autism, visited Rochester Friday to announce the launch of his new National Autism Missing Person Initiative.

Standing inside the Olmsted County Sheriff’s training center, Kennedy announced his agency’s partnership with the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to better support residents on the autism spectrum who are prone to wandering and getting lost. He said he wants to ensure individuals are recovered quickly and safely before they get into dangerous situations.

...

Kennedy has made autism a priority in his agency, but he consistently spreads false information about the condition, including claims that Tylenol causes it.

Kennedy says he hopes to set up an alert system, sort of like an Amber Alert, so that the public and local law enforcement are notified immediately when a resident with autism goes missing. And as part of the initiative, HHS, FEMA, and the Department of Justice will collaborate to provide communities across the country with best practices and training for first responders.

While the initiative launched Friday, Kennedy did not specify a timeline for implementation, and it’s unclear when the alert system will be active.

RFK Jr. is interrupted by his "quack" ring tone while discussing autism conspiracy theories. pic.twitter.com/fOcIC0wEbw

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) August 21, 2026

Gender Differences

In The Politics of Autism, I discuss gender differences .

Gundeslioglu, H., Gray, K.M., Hewitt, O.M. et al. Are There Sex or Gender Differences in Autistic Characteristics? An Umbrella Systematic Review. J Autism Dev Disord (2026).  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-026-07484-0.'

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this umbrella systematic review was to synthesise evidence about sex/gender differences in autism across existing systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and scoping reviews.

Methods

MEDLINE, Embase, Embase Classic, CINAHL, and APA PsycINFO were searched for peer-reviewed articles focused upon sex/gender differences in autistic children, adolescent, or adults, and published in English or Turkish.
Results

Analysis of 34 studies showed no conclusive evidence of sex/gender differences in social communication, friendships, play behaviours and motor stereotypies in autistic children, adolescents, and adults. There was evidence that autistic females had fewer restricted and repetitive behaviours and were more capable in their use of camouflaging although autistic males also engaged in camouflaging. There was weak evidence to suggest that autistic male children have superior visuospatial skills, and evidence to indicate sex/gender differences in some aspects of brain development. Chronological age and general intellectual functioning appear to interact with some of these sex/gender differences.

Conclusion

There was evidence that sex/gender differences amongst autistic people are similar to those seen amongst the general population and are not autism specific. More studies involving equal numbers of both autistic and non-autistic individuals of different sexes/genders are needed to draw more conclusive evidence.

2,777 Measles Cases

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread. Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio. A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

Since  Trump took office in 2025, the U.S. has recorded more confirmed measles cases than in the previous 20 years combined.

CDC:

As of August 20, 2026, 2,777 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026. Among these, 2,761 measles cases were reported by 47 jurisdictions: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, New York State, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. A total of 16 measles cases were reported among international visitors to the United States.

There have been 36 new outbreaks** reported in 2026, and 94% of confirmed cases (2,614 of 2,777) are outbreak-associated (1,239 from outbreaks starting in 2026 and 1,375 from outbreaks that started in 2025).

For the full year of 2025, a total of 2,289 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States.

Assault on Integration

In The Politics of Autism, I discuss court cases involving the civil rights of people with autism and other disabilities. 

Trump does not care.  He despises people with disabilities.  His head of the DOJ Civil Rights Division is a political hack who uses the r-word as a slur.

Last week, the Department of Justice quietly released a memo pertaining to the landmark 1999 disability civil rights case Olmstead v. L.C.  That precedent, the memo claimed without evidence, increases homelessness.

Jonaki Mehta at NPR:

[In 1999] the Supreme Court handed down the Olmstead decision. It reinforced the ADA's integration mandate, which says people with disabilities should get to learn, live and work in their communities rather than in institutions. The government made that promise after people with disabilities fought against segregation in institutions, which have a long history of abuse and neglect.

...

In practice, the integration mandate requires that states provide people with disabilities the services they need to thrive in their homes or communities — in other words, in the most integrated setting possible. For someone with intellectual or developmental disabilities, that could mean a personal care worker helping them to get dressed or eat, or a case manager helping them find a job or housing, among other services.

Now, a lawsuit brought by several Republican-led states, Texas v. Kennedy, is working its way through the courts. The plaintiffs argue that the federal government cannot require states to provide disability services in the community rather than in institutions. Then, in June, the Department of Justice (DOJ), which enforces the integration mandate, issued a legal opinion taking a similar position — essentially aligning itself with the plaintiffs in the case. "Congress has not imposed an integration mandate on states," the memo reads. It goes on to say the Olmstead decision "held only that a state cannot institutionalize such patients without justification. … What counts as adequate justification remains an open question." In July, the DOJ also clarified that it would no longer enforce Olmstead in the same way it had in the past.

Kinda Like OJ's Search for "the Real Killers"

 In The Politics of Autism, I discuss various ideas about what causes the condition.  Dozens of potential causes and correlates have been the subject of scientific and medical research.  I have counted at least 48.

Amanda Seitz and Stephanie Armour at CBS:

President Trump has ordered a reduction in childhood vaccines — publicly faulting the shots for an increase in autism cases — even as the nation's top health official, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has failed to produce evidence linking vaccinations to the disorder.

While the executive order released Aug. 10 does not directly mention autism, Mr. Trump's demand to limit vaccine recommendations has puzzled leading medical groups, doctors, and political analysts alike. The directive landed less than 90 days before midterm elections, which Mr. Trump's own pollsters have warned could be jeopardized by anti-vaccine rhetoric.

"The political timing, particularly for members on the Republican side in swing districts, is not good," said Larry Bucshon, a former Republican congressman and retired doctor.

Mr. Trump's willingness to gamble on the issue underscores the president's impatience for his health secretary to deliver on a promise that he'd pinpoint a culprit for the sharp rise in autism diagnoses.

After more than a year, Kennedy and his close, anti-vaccine allies have blown past a deadline to turn up definitive answers in a multimillion-dollar research mission shrouded in secrecy, leaving the president to recycle debunked notions as he publicly assaults vaccines.

"This is about the most closed project that I've ever heard of," Helen Tager-Flusberg, a renowned psychologist who runs the Coalition of Autism Scientists, said of Kennedy's autism research efforts. "They're treating it like the Manhattan Project in the 1940s. This is as opaque as it could possibly be."

Vaccine Exemptions

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread. Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio. A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

Since  Trump took office in 2025, the U.S. has recorded more confirmed measles cases than in the previous 20 years combined.

Lena H. Sun at WP:

The share of U.S. kindergartners with exemptions from school vaccine requirements for the 2025-2026 school year rose to another record high, according to federal data posted Monday. The sharp increase from 3.6 to 4.2 percent seeking exemptions — about 155,000 students — extends a years-long erosion of childhood immunization rates as the country battles its worst measles resurgence in 35 years.

As exemptions increased, U.S. kindergarten vaccination rates fell slightly for all reported vaccines from the year before. Coverage for the major vaccines required for kindergarten — MMR (measles, mumps and rubella); DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis); poliovirus vaccine (polio); and varicella (chicken pox) — decreased in more than half of states for the second year in a row, the CDC said.

Via Claude:

For the 2025–26 school year, using the "Any Exemption" rate among kindergartners, these states had exemption rates of 5% or higher: [data missing for Montana]

Rank	State	Exemption Rate
1	Idaho	17.5%
2	Utah	12.7%
3	Oregon	11.0%
4	Arizona	10.6%
5	Nevada	8.7%
6	Alaska	8.6%
7	Wisconsin	8.2%
8	North Dakota	8.1%
9	Michigan	7.7%
10	Oklahoma	7.4%
11	Wyoming	7.2%
12 (tie)	South Dakota	6.9%
12 (tie)	Minnesota	6.9%
14	Missouri	6.3%
15 (tie)	Pennsylvania	6.0%
15 (tie)	Hawaii	6.0%
17	Florida	5.9%
18 (tie)	New Jersey	5.7%
18 (tie)	South Carolina	5.7%
18 (tie)	Ohio	5.7%
21	New Hampshire	5.4%
22	Washington	5.3%
23	Texas	5.2%
24	Georgia	5.1%

Special Ed Complaints in the States

 In The Politics of Autism, I write about social services, special education, and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. 

Kara Adundel at K-12 Dive:

State education agencies saw a 46% jump in the number of written state complaints in special education during the 2025-26 school year compared to the year before, according to new survey responses from 31 states.

The self-reported survey data, collected by the Council for Exceptional Children and the National Association of State Directors of Special Education, shows that during the 2024-25 school year there were 7,907 written state complaints. That number rose to 11,523 in the 2025-26 school year.

Written state complaints trigger a state-led investigation into a special education-related concern brought forward by anyone, which can include parents and community members. There is no cost to filing a written state complaint, unlike special education due process complaints, which typically involve assistance from an attorney.

CEC and NASDSE said that while there is no single reason for the increased rate of written state complaints, many families have reported a lack of faith in the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights to resolve their concerns, the organizations said.

During the second Trump administration, OCR has significantly reduced its workforce and closed seven of 12 regional offices that assist with reviewing and investigating K-12 and higher education discrimination complaints filed to the Education Department.

A U.S. Government Accountability Office report in February found that between March and September 2025, OCR received more than 9,000 complaints and resolved 7,072 of those complaints, mainly by dismissing 90% of them.

The Literature on Autism and Employment

In The Politics of Autism, I discuss the employment of people on the autism spectrum.

 Binsfeld, C.R., Grubba, L.S., Schmidt, C. et al. Employment of Adults With Autism Spectrum Disorder: An Integrative Review of Barriers and Facilitators. J Autism Dev Disord (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-026-07467-1

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to synthesize the international literature on the employment of adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), identifying the main barriers and facilitators influencing access, inclusion, and retention in the labor market.

Methods

An integrative review was conducted following established integrative review guidelines, with a systematic search across seven national and international databases. Empirical studies published between 2013 and 2026 were included. Two independent reviewers performed study selection and data extraction. A qualitative thematic analysis was applied to synthesize the findings.

Results

Twenty-two empirical studies met the inclusion criteria. The thematic synthesis identified key barriers, including limited autism awareness within organizations, communication challenges, stigma, inflexible workplace practices, and inadequate managerial support. Key facilitators included supportive leadership, reasonable accommodations, structured communication, organizational flexibility, and recognition of autistic strengths. Overall, the findings highlight the central role of organizational, interpersonal, and contextual factors in shaping employment outcomes for autistic adults.

Conclusions

Employment outcomes for adults with ASD are strongly influenced by workplace structures, managerial practices, and organizational culture rather than individual characteristics alone. The findings underscore the need for evidence-based organizational strategies and public policies aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable employment. Future research should prioritize intervention studies and longitudinal designs examining how organizational practices and leadership shape long-term employment retention.

From the article:

Diagnostic disclosure emerged as a particularly complex issue. While diagnosis may facilitate access to legal protections, accommodations, and organizational support, it may also expose individuals to stigma and discrimination (Romualdez et al. 2021a, b). Recent studies reinforce this ambivalence by demonstrating that disclosure outcomes depend largely on organizational climate, managerial attitudes, and the availability of concrete supports rather than on diagnosis itself (Chen & Yakubova, 2025). This finding reinforces the importance of understanding disclosure not as an isolated decision, but as a context-dependent process shaped by workplace conditions.

..

Beyond recruitment, leadership emerged as a central determinant of inclusive organizational culture. Leaders are responsible for disseminating accurate autism-related information, fostering respect for neurodiversity, assigning tasks aligned with employees’ strengths, and ensuring that accommodations are implemented effectively (Leopoldino, 2015). Recent evidence highlights that leadership effectiveness lies in everyday practices—such as openness to dialogue, responsiveness to individual needs, and facilitation of psychologically safe environments—rather than solely in formal authority (Chen & Yakubova, 2025; Bualar et al., 2026). Such practices reduce the likelihood that responsibility for adaptation is placed disproportionately on autistic employees. This reinforces the role of leadership as a mediating mechanism between organizational policies and lived workplace experiences.

 

Efficient Service Delivery Models for Diagnostic Assessment

In The Politics of Autism, I discuss evaluation and diagnosis.

de Marchena, A., Wieckowski, A. T., Freedman, B., Shea, L., Locke, J., Cronholm, P. F., Leff, S. S., Vivanti, G., & Robins, D. L. (2026). From Waiting to Action: Why the Autism Field Must Embrace Efficient Service Delivery Models for Diagnostic Assessment. Autism, 0(0).

Abstract

Waiting lists for an autism evaluation delay timely diagnosis and entry into autism-specific early intervention. To solve this crisis, our field must increase capacity by embracing efficient diagnostic processes. Traditional diagnostic pathways involve complex evaluations and rely on a highly trained but limited pool of specialists, which elongate wait times. Evidence suggests that emerging approaches, including telehealth assessments, primary care diagnosis, and tiered models, reduce barriers. We guide readers through five core issues critical to updating the standard of care for early autism assessment: (1) What are the consequences of maintaining the status quo? (2) What do families prioritize? (3) What evidence supports efficient diagnostic models? (4) What are the consequences of reducing accuracy? and (5) What level of assessment depth is needed to inform action? Our team contends that the critical advantages of adopting efficient service delivery models far outweigh the disadvantages. Collaboration across disciplines, and trust in families’ insights, will help build capacity. We conclude with actionable recommendations for clinicians and policymakers in support of adopting these models.

From the article:

 In addition to building the evidence base for efficient diagnostic models, policy change must move in tandem to reduce barriers to service entry for young children on the autism spectrum. This requires prioritizing autism-specific EI – approaches that extend beyond generic developmental practices to directly target differences in social communication, learning, and engagement characteristic of the autism spectrum. As one example, the state of South Carolina adopted a “presumptive eligibility” process in which children under the age of 3 at increased likelihood of autism (i.e., not formally diagnosed) were eligible to begin autism-specific EI without awaiting a formal diagnosis (Rotholz et al., 2017). This policy quintupled the children eligible to receive intervention services from 53 in 2010 to 265 in 2015. Critically, findings attributed this change to the new policy: of the 340 total children receiving intervention services in 2015, 79% came in from the presumptive eligibility process, and only 21% had previously received a formal diagnosis. This example also highlights how service eligibility policies interact with diagnostic practices, and how reliance on categorical diagnoses may limit timely access to supports. Potential barriers to adopting these beneficial approaches include changes to billing systems, documentation requirements for care, and training standards for providers.

Mid-August Measles

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread. Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio. A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

Since President Trump took office in 2025, the U.S. has recorded more confirmed measles cases than in the previous 20 years combined.

From CDC:

As of August 13, 2026, 2,566 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026. Among these, 2,550 measles cases were reported by 47 jurisdictions: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, New York State, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. A total of 16 measles cases were reported among international visitors to the United States.

There have been 38 new outbreaks** reported in 2026, and 94% of confirmed cases (2,407 of 2,566) are outbreak-associated (1,032 from outbreaks starting in 2026 and 1,375 from outbreaks that started in 2025).

For the full year of 2025, a total of 2,289 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States. 

Teddy Rosenbluth at NYT:

Pressed recently on whether he might accept responsibility for the resurgence of measles in the country, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fended off any suggestion that his history of promoting vaccine skepticism might be partly to blame.

The groups facing these outbreaks were “almost all religious communities that just don’t vaccinate,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash.

“It’s hard to blame that on me,” he added.

But what Mr. Kennedy failed to acknowledge is his own role, and the role of Children’s Health Defense, the anti-vaccine group he once led, in stirring distrust in those very communities. That includes in Lancaster County, Pa., which is now at the center of one of the largest measles outbreaks in the country.

The state has reported dozens of hospitalizations and more than 230 cases, a number some local doctors consider to be a vast underestimate given that local Mennonite and Amish communities tend to avoid traditional health care.

Five years ago, Mr. Kennedy stood behind a wooden lectern on a farm in the county and delivered a warning to the local Amish community about the nation’s public health agencies.

“Those agencies are going to do everything in their power to make the Amish vaccinate,” he said. “Because they cannot stand the fact that you are healthy.”

A large crowd — 1,500 people according to a local paper’s account — spilled out from under a white tent at the annual farming fair to hear from Mr. Kennedy, then the leader of Children’s Health Defense. He turned to measles, a disease that was so horrible, he joked, that when he fell ill with it as a child he “had to stay home and watch TV the whole week.” The audience erupted with applause and laughter.

“The cure for measles is chicken soup and vitamin A,” he added.

Local leaders acknowledged that improving childhood vaccination rates has long been a challenge within the area’s Amish communities, where just a quarter of people have been vaccinated against measles, according to a 2025 estimate.

But they also said the work of anti-vaccine groups, including Mr. Kennedy’s visit with Children’s Health Defense, hadn’t made it any easier.

 

Leucovorin Spike

A number of posts discussed Trump's support for dubious notions about autism.

The history of autism "cures" is a history of dashed hopes and frequent danger

A release from the University of Michigan:

Leucovorin prescriptions for children spiked after federal officials claimed the drug was an effective treatment for autism during a September 2025 press conference, according to a new Michigan Medicine-led study published in The New England Journal of Medicine.

During the highly publicized event, the United States Department of Health and Human Services announced a plan to update leucovorin’s label to include cerebral folate deficiency, a rare genetic condition that can sometimes include symptoms of autism.

At the same time, federal officials also touted leucovorin’s effectiveness for autism, despite limited evidence supporting that claim.

After the press conference, the number of children aged 0-17 with a filled leucovorin prescription increased 46%, from 4.6 children per 100,000 in the week before the conference to 6.7 per 100,000 during the week of the conference, according to the new research.

"Our findings suggest the press conference may have increased off-label prescribing of leucovorin to children with autism,” said lead author Kao-Ping Chua, M.D., Ph.D., a pediatrician and researcher at University of Michigan Health C.S. Mott Children's Hospital and director of the Susan B. Meister Child Health Evaluation and Research Center.

"This increase is concerning because the effectiveness and long-term safety of leucovorin for children with autism is uncertain."

The authors analyzed a database representing nearly all prescriptions filled in U.S. retail pharmacies.

During 2025, the database included 150,026 leucovorin prescriptions dispensed to 47,394 children.

The weekly number of children with filled leucovorin prescriptions rose from 734 to 5,858 children between the beginning and end of 2025 – a 700% jump.

Much of this increase was driven by the spike in leucovorin dispensing after the press conference, and the largest increases were seen among children ages 6 to 11 and in the southern United States.

By comparison, leucovorin dispensing to adults did not spike after the press conference.

Leucovorin, a decades-old version of Vitamin B9, has mainly been used to counter side effects from methotrexate, a drug used in treating cancer and autoimmune conditions.

A handful of small studies have suggested that leucovorin can help improve some autism symptoms in children, but large randomized clinical trials have not been conducted.

By using a comprehensive national database, the new study builds on earlier research that used smaller databases to assess changes in leucovorin prescribing to children after the press conference.

Concerns about increased off-label use

The new research also showed that there was an increase in leucovorin dispensing to children even before the press conference.

The trend may have been driven by national news coverage featuring compelling patient stories that may have increased interest among some families.

Chua says the rise in leucovorin use among children raises several concerns, including the potential to create false hope for families, displace evidence-based therapies and expose young children to a treatment whose effectiveness and long term safety have not been established.

Other researchers have speculated that increased off-label prescribing of leucovorin may have contributed to ongoing drug shortages that have reduced access for cancer patients who depend on the medication.

"Our findings demonstrate the power of the federal government to influence medical practice," Chua said.

"Given this power, it is important that the government’s messaging about medications is based on rigorous evidence.”

Additional authors: Sijia He, M.S. and Rena M. Conti, Ph.D.

Study Cited: "Leucovorin Dispensing to U.S. Children in 2025,” NEJM.

Ending the Subminimum Wage Does Not Have Adverse Employment Effects

 Michelle Yin, Regina Seo, Hoa Vu, The labor market effects of subminimum wage elimination: Evidence from a national analysis, Labour Economics, Volume 100, 2026, 102884, ISSN 0927-5371, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102884.

Highlights

• First national quasi-experimental analysis of subminimum wage elimination for PWD.
• Elimination reduced 14(c) employment by around 2000 workers per state within two years.
• No significant reductions in overall employment, hours worked, or wages for PWD.
• Reduced welfare receipt suggests elimination promotes economic self-sufficiency.
• Results support federal phase-out of Section 14(c) without adverse employment effects.

Abstract

This study examines the labor market effects of eliminating Section 14(c) subminimum wage employment laws for people with disabilities in the United States. We construct a novel panel dataset combining the universe of Department of Labor Section 14(c) administrative records (2015–2024) with individual-level data from the Current Population Survey (2009–2024). Exploiting the staggered elimination of Section 14(c) across fifteen states, we employ event-study and difference-in-differences designs to identify dynamic treatment effects. We find that elimination policies reduce formal subminimum wage employment by approximately 2000 workers per state within two years. Importantly, we find no statistically significant reductions in overall employment rates, competitive integrated employment, or hours worked among workers with disabilities. Estimates suggest economically meaningful reductions in welfare income receipt. These findings indicate that subminimum wage abolition achieves its intended policy objective by eliminating formal sheltered employment without imposing the adverse employment effects that critics of minimum wage policies predict. Our results inform ongoing federal deliberations over phasing out the Section 14(c) program.